El Nino continues to strengthen in the Pacific. So what is El Nino? El Nino is the warming of the equatorial waters in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean. This change in ocean temperature can cause changes to weather patterns around the globe.

As of the end of October, the waters in the equatorial Pacific continue to inch toward a moderate El Nino. The forecast from several climate models indicate it will continue to strengthen as we enter into December, before starting a slow decline thereafter.

What does this mean for us? Well, unfortunately the local climate signals are mixed with respect to what will happen around the Twin Tiers this winter. We have had tons of snow and sometimes very little snow. We’ve had cold and we’ve had warmth. Other variables will factor into the winter forecast, which I hope to have completed shortly. Stay Tuned.

 

The snow and ice on Mt. Kilimanjaro may soon be gone. The African Mountain’s white peak is rapidly melting and has almost disappeared. It has been rapidly melting at the rate of about a foot and a half of glacial ice loss per year. About 85% of the ice that made up the mountaintop glaciers in 1912 was gone by 2007. And, more than a quarter of the ice present in 2000 was gone by 2007. Changes in cloudiness and snowfall may play a role in the rapid melting, but the primary reason is an increasing average temperatures through the region. Scientists speculate that the glaciers could be completely gone from Kilimanjaro by 2015. For Landsat images showing the decreasing glaciers and snow regions, go to this website:

http://svs.gsfc.nasa.gov/vis/a000000/a003100/a003125/index.html

In the past week, there has been a spike in influenza type illnesses. It got me to thinking; does this have anything to do with the weather? I searched and came across an interesting article relating the higher rates of influenza with temperatures. The gist of the article is that warmer temperatures “melt” the influenza virus’ protective shell, making it more susceptible to outside elements.  Cooler temperatures harden the protective shell, making it more resistant to outside elements. Check out the full article with all the details here.

Over the past couple of weeks I’ve been noticing that the wooly bear caterpillars are out. They are known for the brown or orange band around their midsection. Yep, these are the infamous caterpillars that are supposed to be able to predict how severe a winter may be. The folklore behind this states that the wider the orange/brown band is, the less severe the winter will be. A smaller brown band means a more severe winter. Unfortunately, I haven’t been able to find one of those little buggers so I could see it up close.  I’ve only seen them from afar when I was driving. I’ll keep looking and I’ll hopefully see if the band is large or small.

So, is this really an old tale, or is there some science to collaborate the story? I did some digging, and found this article from the Farmers Almanac. It makes for an interesting read.  Click here to see if  the wooly bear caterpillar can predict the winter.
 

Earth is in the process of plowing through space debris. It’s passing through a stream of dusty debris from Halley's Comet, and this is causing meteors to shoot out of the constellation Orion. Forecasters say the shower will peak tomorrow morning. At its peak before sunrise Wednesday morning, the Orionids shower should produce 20 to 25 meteors an hour. The Orionids are so named because the meteors appear to radiate from near the constellation Orion, aka the Hunter. At this time of year, Orion rises at about 11 p.m. local time worldwide, so the best time to view the Orionids will be late in the night after midnight. Since we have a new moon during the peak of this meteor shower, it will be easier to see the meteors. You don’t even need binoculars to see them, just head outside away from bright lights and let your eyes adjust to the fainter objects in the sky.

The Orionid meteors are created by a band of small particles that circle through the solar system in the orbit of Halley's comet. The comet is visible to the naked eye, and in the 1700s astronomer Edmond Halley was the first to correctly predict its return, calculating that the comet comes back every 76 years.