We're going to be turning our attention from a friendly high pressure system to Hurricane Hanna. Why? Well, computer models indicate we could be affected by her Friday night into Saturday. How strong she will be upon arrival and how much rain we will get remain up in the air. What we get is highly dependent on the forecast track. If we end up on the eastern side, that would bring the worst conditions. If we end up on the western side, that would bring about "better" weather.
What will steer her in our direction? We are watching two things, how models develop a trough in the Mid-west and when Hanna actually starts her move to the northeast. If the trough is slower in its eastward progress and/or deeper, we will have a higher chance for more of an impact from Hanna. If the trough is faster in its eastward progress and/or not as deep, then we'll have a lesser impact. If Hanna begins her move northeast overnight, then we would have a better chance for her to remain closer to the Twin Tiers. If she takes her sweet time, then we just may get lucky enough and she will pass well to our southeast. The good news is that it doesn't appear that Hanna will stall over the Twin Tiers, and she should continue to move at a decent clip.
Computer models this morning were tightly clustered on a landfall near the South Carolina/Georgia border. This afternoons runs disagree with one another and have a wider spread from North Carolina to Northern Florida. This underscores the uncertainty in the forecast. At this time i'm going with a track up to State College or slightly east of there, with a curve toward New England. This would put us on the western side of the system. Even then I believe some of us will get some heavy rain.
As for the potential for flooding, the rivers are nice and low. So, the rivers should be able to handle any rain we get. Any flooding issues would come in a Flash Flood type scenario, which at this time depends highly on her track.
The storms most remembered here in the Twin Tiers are:
Hurricane Hazel 1954 (72mph sustained wind/gusts to 100mph)
Hurricane Diane 1955
Hurricane Connie 1955 (Combined Rain from Diane, caused flooding on the Delaware)
Hurricane Agnes 1972
Hurricane Ivan 2004
Here are a few great websites to track hurricanes and get a look at forecast models Meteorologists use, as always do not take these models at face value as it takes expert analysis to determine which scenario fits the situation best... ie. follow our forecasts for local impacts as well as the National Hurricane Center's forecast track.