The North Atlantic Oscillation is one of several different climate "signals" that can strongly influence our weather during the winter months. See Justin Culligan’s article below for more information on the NAO. Currently we are in the negative phase, but are trending toward zero.
Trying to forecast the NAO for an entire winter is very difficult, if not impossible at this juncture. We can however, with some skill forecast out a few days up to two weeks. One thing to keep in mind, is that the further out in time a forecast goes, the greater the potential error. We generally use several models as a guide to come up with a forecast.
The forecast through the middle of December keeps us in the negative phase of the NAO. There are some dips (strengthening of the NAO) and upward trends (weakening of the NAO) during that time span. Any upward trends may indicate the potential for a storm. Indications are that there may be a chance for ‘something’ next week (looks like mid-week). Also, we can expect average to below average temperatures through the middle of December. This month could be interesting…
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