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Our Winter Forecast vs. Actual Conditions Through The End Of January & What Lies Ahead

By Doug Peters
July 22, 2010 Updated Feb 3, 2009 at 10:48 PM EDT

Here’s our pre-season forecast…

“The Stormtracker Weather Team decid
ed
to try our hand at a winter forecast. We found that we may be in for a more "normal" winter than what we've seen in the last couple of years. Snowfall is expected to be above average, and we think we’ll see 85-100 inches of snow. Temperatures will be colder than average, and we’re going 3 degrees below the winter average of 24.2 degrees.”

Here’s what has happened through the end of January…
·         December’s average temperature was: 27.1 (which was dead on the average)
·         January’s average temperature was: 16.8 (4.9 degrees below average)
·         Snowfall thus far for the winter at the Airport was: 61.4” (15.4” above average)

It appears that we’ve done very well in the temperature department so far. However, we may need a little extra help from Mother Nature if we’re going to get close to the 85-100 inches of snow forecast. 

I believe February is going to be a very changeable month. A look out two weeks and the patterns shift at least twice through the end of the month. I expect to see an above average first half of February, and an average to below average second half with respect to temperatures. The month looks to become fairly active as far as storminess, especially as we approach the 10th of February and beyond. If we can muster up enough cold air, then we ought to come close to our snowfall forecast.

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