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GEARING UP FOR SOME WINTRY PRECIPITATION

WINTRY MIX LIKELY SATURDAY
WINTRY MIX LIKELY SATURDAY(WBNG)
Published: Dec. 16, 2021 at 6:00 PM EST
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Tonight: Mainly cloudy. Slight chance of a few showers. Low: 34-39

Friday: Partly cloudy. High: 40-46

Forecast Discussion:

A cold front swings through overnight but has very limited moisture with it. Rain chances are less than 30%. Lows drop into the 30s after 3am.

Saturday is concerning due to the likelihood of icy conditions from sleet/freezing rain. A complex low pressure develops in the southern Great Lakes and move into PA/NY. This path promotes the chance of rain, snow, freezing rain and sleet. The exact storm track will determine the dominant precipitation type. The trend is to bring some light snow in before 7am from the southwest and as the storm progresses east into the area, the snow pushes north/northeast all the while being replaced with the transition precipitation including sleet and freezing rain. I’m leaning more toward freezing rain and this is concerning because icing develops on all untreated surfaces within a short period. The freezing rain/sleet could get stuck in the Catskills and Poconos leading to a greater chance of significant travel issues/ice accretion. Especially in deeper valleys. By midday Saturday any rain that is going to fall likely lifts into southern NY and northern PA. This *should shrink the icy zone. Snow accumulations could be TR-3″. Ice accretion will likely be a glaze to 0.25″ with the higher end of this likely east/southeast toward the Catskills and Poconos. Please monitor Saturday’s forecast closely for changes.

Sunday will be colder with some snow showers around early in the day and Monday through Wednesday of next week looks fairly quiet with seasonable weather.